Wednesday, August 17, 2005

China Facing Gas Crisis

China is now the world's second largest energy consumer!

Cars line up to buy petrol at a petrol station in Dongguan, south China's Guangdong province, August 17, 2005. China's southern manufacturing heartland of Guangdong is plagued by closed service stations, fuel rationing and hours-long gas queues. (China Daily)

China has sent in police support to help out at filling stations in Guangdong province:

The Chinese government has sent thousands of police to petrol stations in the southern city of Guangzhou to prevent social unrest as drivers scramble to fill their tanks, the Hong Kong Economic Times reported on Thursday.
The paper said authorities had sent a large number of public security officers as well as paramilitary police to fuel stations amid fears that the latest fuel shortage could spark social instability.

"Several thousand public security officers and paramilitary police have been stationed at the 547 filling stations across Guangzhou in recent days," the paper said.



Motorists line up to buy petrol at a petrol station in Dongguan, south China's Guangdong province, August 17, 2005. (China Daily)

The government's fear of losing political control may be part of the reason for the gas shortages:

The Chinese government and its state-owned oil companies are locked in battle over artificially low gasoline prices at the pump that has caused a massive shortage in the southern manufacturing province of Guangdong.

For weeks skyrocketing global oil prices and rising demand has led to a fuel-supply crunch as domestic refineries have been caught short in Guangdong.

Some fear it is only a matter of time before gas-guzzling cities such as Shanghai are hit too.

The government has blamed recent stormy weather for the shortfall, which is feasible but not enough to result in the kilometre long queues at filling stations that drivers in Guangdong have endured for nearly a month.

As oil prices climbed, a standoff erupted between China's National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) -- a key economic policy planning body -- and the country's two largest state oil groups PetroChina and Sinopec, analysts said Wednesday.

The crisis highlights the persistent problems Beijing faces as the economy is transformed to a more market-based system but that is often retarded by authorities who fear loosing political control in the face of full-fledged capitalist rules.


Reuters is reporting today that PetroChina finds large gas reserve in southwest.


Closed service stations, fuel rationing and hours-long gas queues plaguing China's southern manufacturing heartland of Guangdong are piling pressure on the country's oil majors to boost supply into the loss-making market. (Reuters)

China, the world's second-largest energy consumer, aims to increase the use of gas to 8 percent of its energy mix by 2010 from 3 percent now, in part to help clear skies choked by smoke from coal-burning generators.

Gas from the Guang'an field is expected to be easy to recover and of a high quality, but it is too early to say when it can be recovered, the official added.


Update: (Thursday PM) Barcepundit has it figured out. Well, at least he has one explanation. (via Glenn Reynolds)

For more on the Asian Gas Crisis go... HERE

30 Comments:

Blogger Crimsonsplat said...

You know if we wanted to play hardball and really pressure China to deal with N.Korea, it strikes me that it would be a great time to park the navy directly on China's African oil lifeline and start lengthy "inspections" of oil tankers passing through the straits. Or conducting "safety convoys" due to the rampant piracy down there. Of course, bureaucratic snafu's and the Incompetant Military(tm) just couldn't seem to get them organized quickly....

Illegal? Probably. But it would get the point across. In 15 years we won't be able to pull such a stunt, what with China's build-up.

5:52 AM  
Blogger Ronald Coleman said...

I just don't get it. China has a centrally-orchestrated energy policy, lots of bicycles and other efficient transportation, not too many SUV's that I know of, no robber-baron oil companies to contend with, and isn't the White Devil of the Muslim world. How could this be happening?

6:16 AM  
Blogger M. Simon said...

crimson,

I think that rising oil prices will do the job nicely without military intervention.

America is 6X as energy efficient per $ of output vs China. China's energy efficiency is declining at the margins. Higher prices will cause America's energy efficiency to rise.

China has to raise its energy efficiency. This means large capital expenditures.

However, they have been buying market share by selling their goods at below market prices.

They use too much energy because it is priced below market.

To straighten this out is going to be very painful for China.

As long as China's government owned enough resources to supply market demand selling at below market is feasible if stupid. Once economic growth causes demand to exceed supply China is strangled economically. Growth at an explosive pace stops. Rapid growth bought domestic peace. The Chinese military instead of looking outward may refocus its attention internally. The military buildup may come to a halt. In fact manpower may be re-substituted for technology. Internal security in a restive population where protection of production is the goal requires bodies rather than technology.

The rising cost of oil is a strain on America. It is a killer for China.

6:19 AM  
Anonymous Paul Schlick said...

If I recall history correctly, one of Japan's main motivations for its aggression that promulgated WWII in the Pacific was grabbing oil and gas fields to meet the needs of its energy-starved nation. Today we have China's booming economy leading to energy demands that it cannot meet. Add the concept that one way to quell internal unrest is to foster patriotism by channeling your country's emotions and energy against some perceived foreign threat, as Iran did against "The Great Satan" to counter dissatisfaction with the mullahs, and you have an increasingly toxic situation on the mainland. There have been recent stories about China's dramatic military build-up, some of which apparently caught U.S. China-watchers by surprise. It makes you wonder what they're up to.

Just a cautionary thought. Not a very pleasant one, though.

7:09 AM  
Blogger Robert said...

That's the scariest picture I've seen in...well, a very long time. I'll admit a momentary "gotcha" reaction. After all, it could hardly happen to a nicer group of people. But if the wheels come off internally (as I believe they eventually must) there could be external consequences of a large magnitude. If I were Iran, I'd start working real hard on getting nukes--not that that's good news for America, but aren't they the first logical target?

7:18 AM  
Blogger MEC2 said...

Pet peeve alert - it's losing, not loosing.

Any questions on why China is seeking to secure energy production corporations with control over proven reserves?

7:48 AM  
Blogger erp said...

Is Carter in China?

8:04 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Will people never learn? This says it all:

". . .artificially low gasoline prices at the pump that has caused a massive shortage in the southern manufacturing province of Guangdong."

Remember the energy crisis in the 70's with rationing and long gas lines? As soon as the price controls were lifted the long lines went away!

8:31 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

OK, this seems appropriate:
Fueling the dragon

8:52 AM  
Blogger Tom Grey said...

China should be increasing the price of gas, NOW, as a national emergency.

And keep it going up.

It could also declare that some 10 or 20% of its gov't budget will come from gas or energy taxes, and urge all countries to set a revenue target (% of budget) which will increase over time, to reduce emissions.

They're about to be in big trouble.

9:44 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey I've got a solution. Since China holds more U.S. bonds than anyone, why don't they put them all on the market at the same time, tank our economy, and then get the surplus crude shipped over to them since we won't be needing it.

10:30 AM  
Blogger Red River said...

State planning leads to shortages.

11:01 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is that first car on the left a Buick?

11:54 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Buicks are very popular in China.

12:41 PM  
Blogger The Apologist said...

Anonymous said...

Hey I've got a solution. Since China holds more U.S. bonds than anyone, why don't they put them all on the market at the same time, tank our economy, and then get the surplus crude shipped over to them since we won't be needing it.


How is selling bonds going to tank our economy? If they find buyers then America still owes the money (just as we do right now), but we owe it to many people instead of the Chinese. If they can't find buyers then they have to sell the bonds for less than they're worth and we still owe the money, but China is out on it's investment. Selling the best investment China has ever made is a good way to tank the Chinese economy, but it won't hurt us.

12:57 PM  
Blogger TM Lutas said...

Selling bonds tanks our economy because we're still borrowing heavily every month issuing new bonds of our own. If the PRC sells the bonds they're holding, who'll buy the new ones we're hawking without steep price cuts (tantamount to rate increases). The resulting interest rate hikes are what tank the economy.

That being said, the PRC is not dumb. They have so much of our paper that they can't unload it fast enough to save themselves from taking a huge financial hit themselves and the resulting low value of the dollar would wipe out their ability to export to the US. Where are they going to hawk all their stuff, Lichtenstein?

The PRC can't afford the social unrest of eliminating subsidies at a stroke like Reagan did. They don't have electoral legitimacy and fear the rope and the mob.

2:46 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

First photo has got to be fake. There is no way, and I mean no bloody way, that those cars would be queued up in lines that straight in the China I know. Not in my lifetime.

6:09 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Silly blathering! Cease and desist at once!

7:47 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You're kind of ignoring a few factors here, like that China has recognized energy as a big threat. Unlike US. That China's doing something about it. Unlike US. That it's embarking on the biggest nuclear building binge since we were at it, that they've imposed fuel efficiency standards more stringent than ours, that they've actually got a deadline for H-car production (and China rarely misses deadlines). And that they still consume less than a third we do, and import half that. Not that I'd ever take their political system, but I would be more worried about us invading a ME country than China... o, wait.

Just thought I'd throw this stuff out there, give you guys something to chew on...

9:22 PM  
Blogger Sun Bin said...

m.simon,

using $/gallon is not a good measure. because of exchange rate, PPP and those messy factors. In fact, in PPP $/gal are about the same for China and US.

China can be less efficient because they cannot afford good machines (and not as good environmental laws and lax enforcement even if they have). but they are less wasteful on the other hand simply because the same $/gallon represents a much higher % of their income.

but i agree with you guys about developing alternative energy (incl nuclear) and improving energy efficiecy.

9:41 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Remember the energy crisis in the 70's with rationing and long gas lines? As soon as the price controls were lifted the long lines went away!"

What? This poster must NOT have lived thru the 70's. The energy crisis was not caused by price controls, it was caused first by the Arab Oil Embargo ('73) and then later by the Iranian revolution ('79) when Iran hated us for our support of the repressive regime of the Shah.

7:34 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mmmm, China selling some US bonds to Iran and countries that produce oil in the middle east can be tricky too.
It is very odd to see all these comments by people who live in the US and they try to reason chinese way-outs standig above their own viewpoints, molded by lifetime rules of "how things work" which are so different from how the chinese look at them.
Get it straight, the US is not welcome with military action so close to China, namely the middle east. And under the carpet alliances are what's logical when many of them around there think of it the same way. It's a double edged blade and the US can not just invent sanctions and embargoes to the rest of the World with the ease id could 10 years ago. They will end up embargoing each other. But if you look around your officess in the US, you'll find 80% of everything to be made in china. Can those things be embargoed? Of course you can produce all those by yourselves! Right... start recalculating the cost for most anything in your lives and you soon have quite a bit of internal turmoil for absurd price balances compared to wages, where many sectors of every bit of production process will be suffering heavy needs and rotation for people because they will be doiing other calculations and will find out that other activitities are better suited to make more money. And the chain will continue, the need to lure people with higher wages will start, only to have this "personal financial improvement" get dwarved because the zillions of the tiny things in your lives have become way more expensive, and they're so many. But oh wait, you now consume more of everything because these zillions you used to buy for cheap from China now you produce it at a higher cost. This in turn consumes energy, oil, etc etc, and that adds quite another heavy shadow too.

It is not so simple, my American friends, it is not so simple. In a today's world, a crisis like that takes the most of us down with it.

4:08 AM  
Blogger Songwriterz said...

"Ronald Coleman said "I just don't get it. China has a centrally-orchestrated energy policy, lots of bicycles and other efficient transportation, not too many SUV's that I know of, no robber-baron oil companies to contend with, and isn't the White Devil of the Muslim world. How could this be happening?" "

Ron - I caught and appreciate your sarcasm, but the real answer is easy: What (other than first time with a girl) is the most memorable event in most young American men's lives: getting their first car. Man! The sense of freedom and independence is such a rush. This is "My" car. I am in "My" world now and the rest of you can just get outta my way. That's what the Chinese are starting to experience. Decades of Communist rule and minimalist living are starting to give way to the simple independence found behind the wheel of a car. If the Chinese know what's good for them they'll keep the gas a-flowing. Telling the Chinese they can't drive is going to be like taking the keys from a teenage boy - the results can be explosive!

10:45 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You should all look at your comments in light of the current oil crisis going on in our own backyard. You have spoken of greater energy efficiency when their usage pales in comparison to our own. We're a country of SUV gas sucking soccer moms and families not willing to use mass transit, and look at what one single (albeit almighty) disaster has done to this nation. We're now seeing gas runs in a panic because our artificially low priced gas is now catching up to the economic realities the rest of the world. Has there been a single mention of sacrifice to be sholdered from the Whitehouse? Is there a plan to ration gasoline in order to conserve the national supply? The CAFE standards proposed by the administration make our current crisis laughable in light of the suffering that our poor neighbors in the Gulf are being subjected to. So where's the outcry for our own reform?

Typical.

1:18 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I like cheese. I wonder if the Chinese like cheese. I don't see much cheese in their food.

Mayhap this will begin to neutralize the salary levels between our two countries. If you think everything will be "Made in China" forever, your as asstarded as those who thought we'd be the manufacturing masters of the world permanently. Ebb and flow...ebb and flow! Now if you'll excuse me, back to my conversation with Jack Daniels.

8:58 PM  
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