Saturday, August 25, 2007

AP Upchucks on Military- Misreports on Surge Gains

AP Upchuck...
Rather than report honestly about results on the ground in Iraq since the surge began earlier this year, the AP plays with numbers to paint a bleak picture.

The Associated Press leads off today with the headline:

"Iraq body count running at double pace"
The media is again leading the charge to make sure that America loses this war to the militant Islamic killers in Iraq (and later in Afghanistan, no doubt). It used to be that losing a war meant that you were losing more soldiers or assets than your enemy. That certainly isn't the case anymore as you can see from the chart below:

US losses compared to Al Qaeda losses since the beginning of 2006.

Today all Al Qaeda in Iraq has to do is kill innocent villagers any where in Iraq to win this war.

The media will do the rest of the work for them here at home.

The AP headline states that twice as many Iraqis are dying today than at a previous time during the war.

The AP reports:

This year's U.S. troop buildup has succeeded in bringing violence in Baghdad down from peak levels, but the death toll from sectarian attacks around the country is running nearly double the pace from a year ago.

Some of the recent bloodshed appears the result of militant fighters drifting into parts of northern Iraq, where they have fled after U.S.-led offensives. Baghdad, however, still accounts for slightly more than half of all war-related killings — the same percentage as a year ago, according to figures compiled by The Associated Press.

The tallies and trends offer a sobering snapshot after an additional 30,000 U.S. troops began campaigns in February to regain control of the Baghdad area. It also highlights one of the major themes expected in next month's Iraq progress report to Congress: some military headway, but extremist factions are far from broken.

In street-level terms, it means life for average Iraqis appears to be even more perilous and unpredictable.

The AP tracking includes Iraqi civilians, government officials, police and security forces killed in attacks such as gunfights and bombings, which are frequently blamed on Sunni suicide strikes. It also includes execution-style killings — largely the work of Shiite death squads.

The figures are considered a minimum based on AP reporting. The actual numbers are likely higher, as many killings go unreported or uncounted. Insurgent deaths are not a part of the Iraqi count.

The findings include:

• Iraq is suffering about double the number of war-related deaths throughout the country compared with last year — an average daily toll of 33 in 2006, and 62 so far this year.

• Nearly 1,000 more people have been killed in violence across Iraq in the first eight months of this year than in all of 2006. So far this year, about 14,800 people have died in war-related attacks and sectarian murders. AP reporting accounted for 13,811 deaths in 2006. The United Nations and other sources placed the 2006 toll far higher.

• Baghdad has gone from representing 76 percent of all civilian and police war-related deaths in Iraq in January to 52 percent in July, bringing it back to the same spot it was roughly a year ago.

_According to the Iraqi Red Crescent Organization, the number of displaced Iraqis has more than doubled since the start of the year, from 447,337 on Jan. 1 to 1.14 million on July 31.

However, Brig. Gen. Richard Sherlock, deputy director for operational planning for the Pentagon's Joint Chiefs of Staff, said violence in Iraq "has continued to decline and is at the lowest level since June 2006."

He offered no statistics to back his claim.
Am I the only one that is appalled by that last statement? When did the media start trusting the anonymous sources in Iraq that bring them bogus stories about decapitated bodies before trusting the military fighting for their freedom to report their biased reports?

Here are a few figures that the AP left out- These numbers didn't fit with the tone of their report:

Multiple fatality bombings are trending lower since highs were reached earlier in the year. (Brookings)


This chart on the types of fatal bombings also shows an overall decline since the surge began. (Brookings)


This shows the Iraqi civilian casualties that are also on the decline since the surge began at the begining of the year. (Brookings)

What the AP is doing to show the war efforts in the worst possible light is to take numbers from last year and compare then to today rather than to report news honestly showing the successful results since the troop surge began at the beginning of the year.
AP Upchuck!

33 comments:

  1. All one needs to remember about the AP's incredibility. Two Words.
    Jamil Hussein

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  2. Haven't we been here before? Does anyone remember Walter Cronkite telling us how our military was losing the Tet Offensive when the reality was that we were winning every battle we fought in Vietnam?
    What does it say about our elected officials who, with the aid of the MSM, are trying to, once again, guarantee that America is defeated? It says that those students who were marching in Communist Party of America and World Worker's Party funded protest marches in the streets of the U.S. are now the same ones who are in the halls of Congress and the Senate and are writing columns and op-ed pieces for the MSM. Nothing has changed except the amount of grey in their hair and they are no longer being funded by the CPA and WWP. Now they are being funded by more nefarious groups.
    Are we to believe that those with socialist attitudes have changed now that they have been Senators for 30 years? Or that they no longer want to change the entire social structure of the United States to a more (dare I say it?) Marxist utopia?
    We must learn from history and a repeat of the North Vietnam victory in the streets of America must not be repeated because the enemy is no longer Asian.

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  3. Oh Puhleze... Not the the body count! The US bought it, now they deal with it, no matter the price.

    At this stage of the game, victory is not counted in number of bodies of one side or the other, it is simple; achieving some sort of stability in Iraq.

    And here's a definition of defeat; the US pulls out before this happens.

    The Middle East's version of pottery barn rules suck, but those are the rules of this game.

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  4. HEY JIMBO....

    You never bothered to even try to refute the central claim of the AP story, dimwit!

    This year's U.S. troop buildup has succeeded in bringing violence in Baghdad down from peak levels, but the death toll from sectarian attacks around the country is running nearly double the pace from a year ago.

    Let's have a look at one of those graphs you so lovingly reproduced, Wormtongue: the one labelled "Killed and Wounded in Multiple Fatality Bombings". Notice that the Brookings Institution does not label every data point with its value. Wonder why that is? No matter... we'll eyeball it. And we'll look solely at the number killed.

    For the months of June, July, and August 2006, the values of number killed are respectively 395, 490, and (eyeballing) about 450. For the months of June, July, and August 2007, the values of number killed are respectively 354, 659, and 648.

    Add them up:

    (2006) June+July+August = 1335

    (2007) June+July+August = 1701

    Oh, my.

    Oh, my.

    There have been MORE deaths from multiple-fatality bombings this summer, WITH THE SURGE, than there were last year, WITHOUT THE SURGE. The increase in the number of deaths from multiple-fatality bombings for the two periods compared is about 27%.

    Chickenhawk Jim Hoft seems to have been played for a fool yet again.

    What a surprise.

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  5. The WSJ reports that insurgent attacks, expect for one month since the Surge began, are up.

    http://radamisto.blogspot.com/2007/08/numbers-game.html

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  6. RETIRE05: "We must learn from history.."

    Fine -

    Q Thank you. You've been careful to avoid saying how long the military strikes in Afghanistan might take place. But can you promise to say how long American -- can you avoid being drawn into a Vietnam-like quagmire in Afghanistan?

    THE PRESIDENT: We learned some very important lessons in Vietnam. Perhaps the most important lesson that I learned is that you cannot fight a guerrilla war with conventional forces. (10/11/2001)

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  7. Check the title of Wormtongue's post:

    "AP Upchucks on Military- Misreports on Surge Gains"

    Now check the text of this post.

    NOWHERE in this post does Jim Hoft the Lying Asswipe cite ONE SINGLE ITEM that the AP "misreported".

    KEEEEEE-RIST, Jimbo... Just how effing STOOOOOPID do you think your readers are?

    If anybody barfed here today, Jimbo, it was you.

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  8. Anonymous8:22 PM

    I advise everyone to view some of the videos over at the Pentagon Channel. Lots of commander briefings and Operation Iraqi Freedom news. Brigadier Gen. Lynch in Baghdad said a couple days ago that "Civilian casualties have decreased by 36 percent." He also said the enemy is on the run and they have no breathing room because of the surge, which means they cannot attack civilians or military with the same frequency. Attacks are declining.

    The fact is that the numbers fluctuate but have been on a downward trend since May.

    Just last week commanders in Iraq said major attacks are down 50% in Iraq. It'd be interesting to see how civilian deaths could be on the rise in that case.

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  9. How long does a war last? I don't know, perhaps until the enemy is dead or gives up and goes back to being a peaceful goat herder or college student?
    Wars end when the enemy quits. It is that simple.

    And wars are won by the military. Not by some overweight, drunken Senator who thinks that he is soooo much smarter than the boots on the groud.
    Wars are lost by those who want to throw their power around like some Congresscritters seem to do. Wars are lost by public opinion fueled by a news media that tells Americans on a daily basis things like the cost is too high, we are losing, we cannot win. Not by our fighting men and women who are dedicated to winning, not losing. Wars are lost by those who have no concept of the desires of the enemy but think that if America just stops being such a bully, they will leave us alone.

    Wars are lost by fools who think that if we just talk to our enemy, they will stop trying to harm us.

    Which catagory do you fit into?

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  10. Anonymous8:30 PM

    Where'd you get those figures, meatbrain? And why are you so callous about civilian casualties? Giddy, almost. Sickening.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Amy, meatbrainless is stuck on STOOOOPID.

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  12. ++


    from another perspective, HT : Talisman Gate

    Marked Decrease in Al-Qaeda Operations

    excerpts:

    [Two months ago, the ISI could claim over 900 operations in its biweekly reports, and now they're down to under 200. If that isn’t a measure of progress in Iraq—one that the enemy itself is acknowledging—then what is?

    These downward trends are reflected across all insurgent groups operating in Iraq, and it should be noted that a couple of months ago 70 percent of the total violence done in Iraq was credited to Al-Qaeda.]

    [Remember the Marine Intelligence report for Ramadi leaked through the Washington Post on November 28, 2006? It concluded that “the U.S. military is no longer able to defeat a bloody insurgency in western Iraq or counter al-Qaeda’s rising popularity there.” Today, Ramadi is safer than Basra, which is saying much.

    Wouldn’t it be nice if major news bureaus would take another look at these trends ahead of the Petraeus report? Maybe then some members of Congress, ‘experts’ and presidential candidates wouldn’t sound so misinformed…]

    ==

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  13. "Where'd you get those figures, meatbrain?"

    READ FOR COMPREHENSION, idiot. I told you where they came from: the very graph that Gateway Pissant uses in the post, above.

    "And why are you so callous about civilian casualties? Giddy, almost. Sickening."

    You're full of shit, Amy. I am neither callous nor giddy. I'm simply pointing out that Jim Hoft is playing his readers for fools. In your case, it is obvious that he succeeded.

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  14. Ilan Goldenberg:

    "O'Hanlon's piece in the Wapo today points to a significant reduction in sectarian violence.  But as Matt points out the U.S. military won't actually verify those numbers or show any proof.

    In fact getting access to any kind of civilian casualty number has grown much more difficult in the past year.  The most reliable source for civilian casualty estimates, the UN, has not been allowed access to the data since the start of 2007.  The Iraqi government was mad because it thought the UN's numbers were too high so it stopped sharing the data.

    There are also numerous reports of underreporting of civilian casualties inside Iraq.

    Even more damning is the fact that just last August the military and the Bush Administration specifically underreported civilian deaths in an attempt to tout the success of the original Baghdad security operation.  An accusation that was confirmed by the Iraq Study Group.

    A drop in civilian casualties would be great news.  I just wish someone who doesn't have a vested interest in reporting that news could actually verify those numbers."

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  15. Well as usual we have meatbrain gives us another of his Obama moments - long on witless, factless rant and short on facts...

    Good point retire05 in bringing up that other disgusting old fraud, Walter Cronkite...

    jeha rightly notes: "At this stage of the game, victory is not counted in number of bodies of one side or the other, it is simple; achieving some sort of stability in Iraq"

    So in order to get the real down & low should we depend on what passes for news outfits in this country?

    Personally I'll take my chances with the likes of Double Tap , Pat Dollard , and Flopping Aces if I want the facts...

    I'll let repulsive & seditious fools like meatbrain wallow in the crap that emanates from the MSM and, Aljazerra since living in denial is their only strong suit...

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  16. "Well as usual we have meatbrain gives us another of his Obama moments - long on witless, factless rant and short on facts..."

    You're a fucking liar, juandos. I provided facts from the same source that Gateway Pissant cited. You just don't like what the facts have to say.

    "I'll let repulsive & seditious fools like meatbrain wallow in the crap that emanates from the MSM and, Aljazerra since living in denial is their only strong suit..."

    Typical wingnut... since you can't argue the facts, you start hurling utterly baseless accusations of 'sedition'. Gawd, you're a coward.

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  17. 'retire05' wrote:

    "What does it say about our elected officials who, with the aid of the MSM, are trying to, once again, guarantee that America is defeated? It says that those students who were marching in Communist Party of America and World Worker's Party funded protest marches in the streets of the U.S. are now the same ones who are in the halls of Congress and the Senate and are writing columns and op-ed pieces for the MSM."

    NAME THE SPECIFIC PEOPLE YOU ARE REFERRING TO HERE, idiot.

    "Nothing has changed except the amount of grey in their hair and they are no longer being funded by the CPA and WWP. Now they are being funded by more nefarious groups."

    NAME THE SPECIFIC GROUPS YOU ARE REFERRING TO HERE, idiot.

    PROVIDE PROOF THAT THE PEOPLE YOU NAME ARE BEING FUNDED BY THOSE GROUPS, idiot.

    Watch this idiot run, folks. The silence will be deafening.

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  18. Well aren't we blessed?!?!

    Poor, little meatbrain has tossed us yet another ' Obama moment'...LOL!

    meatbrain whines: "You're a fucking liar, juandos. I provided facts from the same source that Gateway Pissant cited. You just don't like what the facts have to say"...

    Hmmm, all you attempted to do and where quite silly attempting it was to spin the facts... You offered nothing at all to counter what Jim's actual FACTS show us...

    Meanwhile you continue to face the facts of the real world where operations like Marne Husky are sticking it to the terrorists...

    Maybe you ought to consider Flopping Aces posting: One: Civilian and U.S. troop deaths are down.

    Two: Former Sunni opponents are now on our side.

    Three: Al Queda is being destroyed.

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  19. "Hmmm, all you attempted to do and where quite silly attempting it was to spin the facts... You offered nothing at all to counter what Jim's actual FACTS show us..."

    Another fucking lie from a fucking liar. The facts, gutless wonder, show that more civilians are dying now in multple-fatality bombings than this time last year. Gateway Pissant tried to spin the facts by ignoring last year's death toll. You are deliberately ignoring his tactics, fucking liar.

    "Maybe you ought to consider Flopping Aces posting..."

    Maybe you ought to consider that the moron who posted that at Flopping Aces provided not one single goddamn statistic in his post to support those three claims.

    You're a gullible fool, juandos. You'll never be anything more than a gullible fool.

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  20. Hmmm, poor meatbrain long on swearing and name calling but short on reality...

    What's wrong meatbrain, is your cellmate treating you badly again?

    Your whine: "Flopping Aces provided not one single goddamn statistic in his post to support those three claims" which of course implies that you perused the rest of Flopping Aces' site to come up with that lack of statistics comment, right?

    BTW meatbrain where is your credible source for the following and note the operative word here is, 'credible': "The facts, gutless wonder, show that more civilians are dying now in multple-fatality bombings than this time last year"?


    Maybe you should consider reading Ralph Peter' latest : "Out here in Anbar Province, al Qaeda did what religion-driven extremists always do eventually - they over-reached, setting the bar so high that nonfanatics couldn't measure up (nor did they want to). The terrorists responded with a campaign of slaughter against their fellow Muslims.

    Now the Sunni Arabs who were fighting so bitterly against us are fighting beside us to destroy al Qaeda in Iraq. And the terrorists are going down.

    Out here in Anbar Province - long the most troubled in Iraq - the change has come so swiftly and thoroughly that it's dazzling. Marines who were under fire routinely just months ago are now directing their former enemies in battle.

    Although this trend has been reported, our battlefield leaders here agree that the magnitude of the shift hasn't registered back home: Al Qaeda is on the verge of a humiliating, devastating strategic defeat - rejected by their fellow Sunni Muslims."

    Funny how your whining meatbrain reminds me of CNN’s Cafferty ...:-)

    So seditious meatbrain how would you answer the following?
    Can Americans pride themselves on that kind of staunch commitment today? Or are we going to see a repeat of the Vietnam War in which the United States won on the battlefield, but lost the will to fight at home? As we ask ourselves more questions, we should keep in mind that there is absolutely no doubt that our commitment will determine the success or failure of the post-Saddam Iraq

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  21. "Your whine: "Flopping Aces provided not one single goddamn statistic in his post to support those three claims" which of course implies that you perused the rest of Flopping Aces' site to come up with that lack of statistics comment, right?"

    READ WHAT I SAID, FUCKING LIAR. The author provide no statistics in that post to support his claims.

    "BTW meatbrain where is your credible source for the following and note the operative word here is, 'credible': "The facts, gutless wonder, show that more civilians are dying now in multple-fatality bombings than this time last year"?"

    READ WHAT I SAID, FUCKING LIAR. Those numbers come off the same graph Gateway Pissant used in his post.

    KEEEEEE-RIST, juandos. You're a fucking liar and a fucking idiot. You simply cannot understand what is said to you.

    Answer this question, fucking liar: Exactly what acts have I committed that qualify as 'sedition' under US law?

    You are now going to prove to us that you are also a fucking coward, juandos.

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  22. Well meatbrain your apparent inability to read is the only thing you have showed us today but hey! Thanks for playing and thanks for showing us what a liar and a loser you are...

    Its been entertaining but unlike you I actually have things to do...

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  23. I was right. juandos proves its cowardice by running in terror from a simple question.

    "Thanks for playing and thanks for showing us what a liar and a loser you are..."

    Hey, fucking liar: Exactly what did I lie about?

    Exactly what acts have I committed that qualify as 'sedition' under US law?

    Run away again, fucking liar...

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  24. 'I provided facts from the same source that Gateway cited.'` meatbrainless

    Well, brainless, it has been said that people can find anything they want in the Bible, even unto how to cut toenails.

    Gateway, a person who uses so much foul language ought to be kicked out of here. Just my opinion, mind... I also notice that one can no longer acces brainless' blog anymore, by clicking on his name. Wonder why that is...

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  25. meatbrain, the fact that you cannot argue your points without the use of profanity tells me all I need to know about you; your lack of rational thought, you inability to argue a point without the use of detrimental language and your total lack of an intellectual method in which to argue the points.

    I am all for free speech. I am not for your freedom to call me names when you don't even know me. I am not for your freedom to use abusive, foul language on a public forum.
    Rant all you want. But to not do that unless you resort to name calling and profanity should get you banned from any civilized forum where people of obviously higher intellect than yourself respond.
    Gateway Pundit should ban you until you clean up your act.

    Name those Congress critters who marched against the Vietnam War? Are you totally devoid of any knowledge of history? It would seem so. And the nefarious organizations that are backing the protest marches?
    Read the book The Politics of Peace if you want to know. At least while you are reading, we will not be subjected to your foul mouth and hateful rhetoric and consequently, it is a win-win situation; we get a reprieve from your insanity and you will learn something.

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  26. "Rant all you want. But to not do that unless you resort to name calling and profanity should get you banned from any civilized forum where people of obviously higher intellect than yourself respond. Gateway Pundit should ban you until you clean up your act."

    Gateway Pissant allows profanity in comments, and includes it in his own posts. Complain to him, idiot.

    "Name those Congress critters who marched against the Vietnam War?"

    No. I challenged you to back up your original claim: to name the "students who were marching in Communist Party of America and World Worker's Party funded protest marches" who are now "in the halls of Congress" and are "being funded by more nefarious groups". Obviously, you can't do that.

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  27. What is the point of the AP article anyway? If their figures are accurate (I doubt they are) and Iraqi body counts have doubled all the more reason for the American military to stay in Iraq. If the body count has doubled while the Ameircan military is there, how much would the body count multiply if it were not?

    But what do fools like Meathead and the majority of the AP care? They want the US out becausw they want the US to lose...plain and simple. They do not care if an American withdrawal leads to another Cambodia. Liberals have more important things to tend to- socialist healthcare, union protecting, partial birth abortion. These items are priorities for people like the Meathead. Genocide? Since when has a liberal cared about that?

    Meathead, go take your meds. You seem a little too angry today...even by your standards...moron.

    Another great post by the Gateway Pundit.

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  28. Get ready for hell. I just linked this article over at the KOS.

    ReplyDelete
  29. ++

    The Buffalobutt Penguins

    The Boldtype meatbrains, black & white,

    Do little else but write and write,

    Although they've nothing much to say,

    They write and write it anyway.

    The Boldtype meatbrains, do not think,

    They simply write with endless ink.

    They write of lies, they write of crow,

    For that is all they seem to know.

    At times these shy and silent birds

    Will verbally express their words.

    But mostly they do not recite --

    They aim their beaks and write and write.

    ==

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  30. "If their figures are accurate (I doubt they are) and Iraqi body counts have doubled all the more reason for the American military to stay in Iraq."

    Well, Petey, if you don't like the AP's statistics, whose statistics do you trust? Who is currently publishing reliable statistics regarding the total civilian deaths from violence in Iraq?

    Are there any conditions under which you would agree that it would be time to bring the US troops home from Iraq?

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  31. 'Are there any conditions under which you would agree that it would be time to bring the US troops home from Iraq?' ~ meatbrain

    When people like YOU move to Cuba.

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  32. Meathead,

    The president will bring the troops home after we win the war in Iraq. What is winning the war? Winning the war is when the ELECTED government (something you were against because you felt that Hussein should remain in power) tells the American military to leave. When will the ELECTED (I know you hate it that the Iraqis actually ELECTED a government) tell the American military to leave? When their forces can stand up on their own and fight the terrorists themselves and protect its citizens from terror and enjoy the freedom the coalition has given them. You know freedom Meathead? Its the thing that allows you to post your stupidity on this board. You see how simple that is Meathead? Oh and something else Meathead- The US will probably have some sort of presence in Iraq for a few decades. In other words, you and the rest of your extreme, socialist loving, partial birth abortion loving, leftists better get used to the greatest military in the world being there. Now, is that too difficult for you to understand idiot?
    The war on terror will last at least as long as the Cold War which was another battle that liberals wanted us to lose. Now go away little boy.

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  33. Petey's response is instructive. First off, he cannot provide any statistics regarding the total civilian deaths from violence in Iraq.

    Second, he fails to explain how an occupying force "wins" anything. The rationalization for the "surge" was to create conditions under which the Iraqi government could achieve several benchmarks, and that simply hasn't happened.

    Last, of course, is the fact that Petey is incapable of conducting an argument without resorting to that hoariest and most transparent of fallacies, the straw man. He has no idea how to engage anything I actually said, so he invents a cartoon adversary using viewpoints that I have never espoused, and proceeds to argue against that. It's hilarious and pathetic at the same time.

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