Monday, October 01, 2007

IRAQ VIOLENT DEATH RATES PLUNGE!

It looks like the surge is working...

The violent deaths in September were about half of what they were in August. (Brookings)

The number of violent deaths in Iraq plunged to the lowest level this year in September.
The BBC reported:

The number of Iraqi civilians killed per month in bombings and shootings has fallen to the lowest level this year, the Iraqi government says.

In September, 884 civilians were killed by violence, less than half the figure for August, the government said.

The BBC's Jon Brain in Baghdad says the figures suggest the so-called surge involving 30,000 extra US troops is having some success.

September also saw the lowest number of US troops killed for more than a year.

There were 62 US military fatalities - the fewest in a single month since July 2006.

The troop surge and accompanying security crackdown is designed to give Iraq's politicians breathing space to achieve reconciliation between the country's rival factions.
This follows yesterday's good news on Ramadan violence and US deaths.

John Wixted is tracking the numbers HERE and HERE.

UPDATE: And, even Al-Qaeda in Iraq is begging for mercy.

AJ Strata says the democratic plan would have allowed more deaths.

6 comments:

  1. C'mon. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has already declared defeat. It' over.

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  2. Anonymous7:40 AM

    From last month's numbers:
    Experts Doubt Drop In Violence in Iraq

    The intelligence community has its own problems with military calculations. Intelligence analysts computing aggregate levels of violence against civilians for the NIE puzzled over how the military designated attacks as combat, sectarian or criminal, according to one senior intelligence official in Washington. "If a bullet went through the back of the head, it's sectarian," the official said. "If it went through the front, it's criminal."

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  3. So CMFT,
    Are you claiming that they have changed the way that the figures are counted over time, the drop? And if so, where is your evidence?

    For one, as soon as I see your handle I can tell that you automatically believe that anybody who disagrees with you is a liar.

    So it is pretty apparent that you, before even looking at the numbers, believe that they are a lie because you disagree with them. Isn't that about right?

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  4. Anonymous10:11 AM

    I have to say as often as possible - victory in Iraq will be achieved in 2008, as predicted in May of 2006.

    Don't give up hope. We are in the home stretch!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous2:27 PM

    If I'm reading the statistics correctly...

    The FBI (http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/data/table_06.html#l) gives the number of murders in 2006 in Baltimore, MD as: 276.

    In a given 30-day period that would average out to: 22.7/per month (30-days).

    The population of Baltimore according to the same FBI page was: 637,556.

    Giving a murder rate per 100,000 people of: 3.56.

    According to the CIA Factbook (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/iz.html), the population of Iraq is 27,499,638. With 884 murders in September (30-days), that gives a rate per 100,000 of: 3.21.

    So, finally, it looks like we can actually say that the chances of being killed in Iraq are now less than the chances of being killed in Baltimore, MD.

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  6. I knew it: Baltimore = quagmire

    ReplyDelete